Monsoon

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced a promising forecast for the upcoming monsoon season, predicting a probability of above-normal rainfall nationwide. According to IMD's projections, there is a 106% likelihood of rainfall surpassing the long-term average between June and September 2024.

Monsoon:

• Definition: The monsoon is characterized by a seasonal reversal of wind direction, resulting in distinct wet and dry periods. It's experienced in tropical regions between 20° N and 20° S.

• Dual System of Winds: Monsoons involve seasonal winds flowing from sea to land during summer and from land to sea during winter. They're unique to regions like the Indian Subcontinent and Southeast Asia.

• Origin and Impact: Southwest monsoons originate from a low-pressure system over the Tibetan plateau, bringing substantial rainfall to most parts of India. Northeast monsoons primarily affect the southeastern coast.

• Onset and Withdrawal: Monsoons typically last 100-120 days, from early June to mid-September. The onset is marked by a burst of rainfall progressing from south to north, while withdrawal begins in northwest India by early September.

Long Period Average Rainfall (LPA):

• Definition and Importance: LPA represents the average rainfall recorded over a region during a specific interval, aiding in forecasting and data compilation. It helps smooth out variations and categorizes rainfall distribution as normal, below normal, above normal, deficient, or excess.

Factors Affecting Monsoon:

• Differential Heating and Cooling: Varied heating and cooling of land and water lead to low pressure over land and high pressure over seas, influencing monsoon winds.

• Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ): The shifting of ITCZ northward during summer in the northern hemisphere pulls southwest monsoon winds onto land from the sea.

          Jet Streams, Pressure Systems, and Ocean Currents: Factors like the movement of jet streams, pressure variations, and ocean              currents influence monsoon patterns, with phenomena like El Niño and La Niña impacting climate conditions.

El Niño and La Niña are two phases of a climate phenomenon called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which occurs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

1. El Niño:

   • During El Niño, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures develop in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
   • This disrupts normal weather patterns, leading to various global impacts such as increased rainfall in some regions (like Peru) and drought in others (like Australia and Southeast Asia).
   • El Niño events typically occur every 2 to 7 years and can last for several months to over a year.

2. La Niña:

   • La Niña is the opposite phase of El Niño, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
   • It often leads to enhanced trade winds, which can result in increased rainfall in some areas (like Southeast Asia and Australia) and drought in others (like parts of South America).
   • La Niña events typically occur after El Niño events and can also last for several months to over a year.

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Monsoon's Impact on India:

• Positive Impact: The monsoon is crucial for agriculture, water recharge, economic growth, and holds cultural significance. It contributes to regional crop diversity and prosperity.

• Negative Impact: However, it also brings challenges such as flooding, droughts, health risks, and infrastructure damage.

Way Forward:

• Water Management: Focus on efficient water management for irrigation and power generation to ensure sustainability.

• Forecasting Technology: Invest in advanced forecasting technologies to enhance prediction capabilities.

• Climate Adaptation: Implement measures to adapt to climate change impacts, including resilient infrastructure and sustainable practices.

• International Cooperation: Engage in collaborative efforts at the global level to address climate challenges collectively.