For Future Ready Seniors

Amidst the fervor surrounding India's demographic dividend, there's a less discussed but significant trend emerging—the gradual increase in the elderly population. According to projections by the United Nations Population Fund, the number of individuals aged 60 and above is poised to more than double from 100 million in 2011 to 230 million by 2036, comprising nearly 15% of the total populace. This figure is expected to further climb to 319 million by 2050, representing almost one-fifth of the entire population. India is believed to be transitioning into the third phase of the demographic transition model.

This transition is primarily propelled by declining fertility rates and extended life expectancy. As households shrink in size, with the average dropping from 5.94 in 2011 to 3.54 in 2021, and with a growing proportion of older individuals, who often grapple with chronic ailments, there arises a pressing need to overhaul the healthcare and social support systems. The caregiving landscape at home is undergoing a transformation, straddling between social and healthcare domains, often blurring the boundaries between the two. This shifting family dynamic is fostering a growing reliance on external assistance for the elderly's care within the confines of their homes.

India has witnessed a remarkable surge in life expectancy, soaring from around 32 years in the late 1940s to approximately 70 years today. Although other nations have achieved even greater strides in this regard, India's progress is undeniably noteworthy. Concurrently, the fertility rate has plummeted from about six children per woman to a mere two, liberating women from the perpetual cycle of childbearing and childcare. While these developments are positive, they also usher in a new challenge—the aging of the population and the ensuing increase in the Elderly Dependency Ratio.

The dependency ratio is a crucial demographic metric that assesses the ratio of the dependent population, typically comprising children and the elderly who are not part of the workforce, to the working-age population, usually engaged in the workforce. It offers valuable insights into the economic burden placed on the working-age segment to support dependents.

There are several types of dependency ratios:

1. Youth Dependency Ratio: This ratio compares the population aged 0-14 (considered dependent) to the population aged 15-64 (considered working-age). It highlights the proportion of children that the working-age population must support.

   Formula: (Population aged 0-14 / Population aged 15-64) x 100

2. Elderly Dependency Ratio: This ratio compares the population aged 65 and above (considered dependent) to the population aged 15-64 (considered working-age). It indicates the proportion of elderly individuals that the working-age population must support.

   Formula: (Population aged 65+ / Population aged 15-64) x 100

3. Total Dependency Ratio: This ratio amalgamates the youth and elderly dependency ratios to offer an overarching measure of the dependency burden on the working-age population.

   Formula: (Population aged 0-14 + Population aged 65+) / (Population aged 15-64) x 100

By evaluating these dependency ratios, policymakers and analysts can glean insights into the demographic composition of a population and anticipate potential economic challenges associated with supporting dependent segments.

The Dependency Ratio serves as a crucial demographic metric, gauging the ratio of the dependent population, encompassing children and the elderly who are typically not in the workforce, to the working-age population. This ratio sheds light on the economic burden borne by the working populace to support dependents.

The challenges stemming from the burgeoning elderly population in India are multifaceted. A primary concern lies in addressing the evolving healthcare needs of the elderly populace. With a demographic where the elder cohort's growth outpaces that of the younger segment, the paramount challenge is furnishing a spectrum of high-quality, affordable, and accessible health and care services tailored to their needs.

India's dismal Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index, ranking significantly below the global average, exacerbates the predicament, especially in smaller towns and rural hinterlands where basic healthcare services are sorely lacking. Moreover, social issues such as familial neglect, low educational attainment, socio-cultural taboos, and institutional distrust further compound the plight of the elderly, subjecting them to neglect and marginalization.

The nexus between health, economic productivity, and well-being perpetuates a vicious cycle, particularly among the economically disenfranchised elderly stratum. The confluence of poor health and unaffordable healthcare costs, compounded by their diminished earning capacity, renders them not only economically unproductive but also exacerbates their mental and emotional distress.

Despite the presence of welfare schemes such as Ayushman Bharat and public health insurance initiatives, a significant portion of the populace remains bereft of financial coverage for healthcare expenses. Similarly, pension schemes, while existent, offer meager stipends that fail to adequately sustain the elderly populace.

Reskilling the elderly population to adapt to evolving technological landscapes poses a formidable challenge, albeit one essential for their integration into the workforce. The feminization of aging, marked by a surplus of elderly women vis-à-vis men, warrants tailored policy interventions to safeguard the vulnerable demographic subset.

Furthermore, the burgeoning trend of solitary living among the elderly underscores the imperative for senior-friendly housing initiatives and the development of assistive technologies to cater to their unique needs. While commendable efforts have been undertaken at the global and national levels to ameliorate the plight of the elderly, there remains a pressing need for comprehensive policy frameworks to fortify home-based care services, ensuring the dignity and well-being of the elderly populace.

This article draws insights from 'For Future Ready Seniors' published in the Indian Express on 29/04/2024.